Introduction: As France gears up for the 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen of the National Rally stands as the frontrunner, according to a new Ifop poll published by Le Journal du Dimanche on March 30, 2025. However, her political fate hangs in the balance as a Parisian court prepares to rule on March 31, 2025, in the “parliamentary assistants” case, potentially barring her from public office. This article examines her lead, the legal stakes, and what’s next for French politics.
Le Pen’s Polling Dominance
The Ifop survey, released just hours before the critical court hearing, shows Le Pen leading every run-off scenario with 34–37% of first-round voting intentions. She outpaces centrist heavyweights like former Prime Ministers Édouard Philippe (20–25%) and Gabriel Attal (around 20%), as well as far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12–13%). Even compared to nationalist rival Éric Zemmour of Reconquête (5–6%), Le Pen’s broader appeal solidifies her as the right-wing’s top contender.
The Court Case Threatening Her Candidacy
Le Pen faces allegations of misusing EU funds alongside 26 others in the long-standing “parliamentary assistants” case. Prosecutors seek a five-year ban from public office—effective immediately, even pending appeal—plus a possible prison sentence and a €300,000 fine. Le Pen vehemently denies the charges, framing them as political sabotage. The court’s ruling, due at 10 a.m. on March 31, 2025, could reshape the 2027 race if she’s disqualified.
Parallels to Romania and Judicial Overreach
The timing of the ruling echoes recent events in Romania, where populist Calin Georgescu was arrested and barred from a presidential re-run after winning the first round. His exclusion, upheld by Romania’s constitutional court, sparked protests over judicial interference in elections. If Le Pen faces a similar fate, her supporters may cry foul, viewing it as an attempt by a politicized judiciary to thwart the will of French voters.
What Happens if Le Pen Is Barred?
Should Le Pen be ruled ineligible, the National Rally’s path forward is uncertain. It’s unclear if another party figure could rally her base or if her votes would shift to centrists like Philippe or Attal. Le Pen, defiant as ever, told reporters last week, “If the court pronounces a sentence of ineligibility with provisional execution against me, it would have no influence on our ability to defend the French people.” Her decades-long effort to rebrand the National Front into a mainstream force has made this her strongest shot at the Élysée Palace yet.
Conclusion
Marine Le Pen’s lead in the 2027 French election polls is undeniable, but the March 31, 2025, court ruling could upend her campaign—and France’s political landscape. With her fourth presidential bid in sight, the stakes have never been higher. Stay updated on this developing story at Planet Today.
