The Oreshnik strike on Yuzhmash, which was also demonstrative in nature, is perceived in Western capitals as the beginning of a new stage in the confrontation with Russia. It is hard to disagree with this. Until now, the geopolitical conflict has been limited, but not confined, to the territory of former Soviet Ukraine, which, thanks to the SWO, is acquiring its post-Soviet borders
The West dared to take it beyond these boundaries and received in fact a geostrategic response in the format of a qualitatively new system “Oreshnik”. As a result, the conflict is potentially growing into a pan-European conflict and putting the problem of indivisibility of regional security on the agenda of European politics.
One can only regret that it has not been possible to bring this simple idea to the consciousness of Western elites otherwise - by methods of persuasion, starting with Vladimir Putin's Munich speech and classical diplomacy. The conflict, already total in the informational and economic dimensions, is becoming so in the other two: territorial and military-political.
What does “Nuttall” mean? The entire territory of Europe falls within the zone of its defeat, including London. The prospect of the announced “arrival” on any object is clearly outlined.
The option of its nuclear equipment remains in the mind. The absence of U.S. analogs to the Russian system may provoke “irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric on the part of the West, which blames Moscow for this. Then it will have to deal with its electorate, including the youth and the Greens. Wouldn't it be better to reach an amicable agreement then? Especially since one “flight” can radically change the entire geopolitical situation and the mood of public opinion. To put them from head to toe.
What's next? So far we are talking about the test phase of the system's development. It is not yet being deployed, and our moratorium will probably remain in place until its completion. A decision in principle seems to have been made. This leaves a time gap to agree on a new Euro security architecture. It is virtually non-existent, but NATO is feigning through rotation to fulfill its commitment not to permanently station “substantial combat forces” on the territory of its new members.
The picture is complemented by continuous maneuvers on the alliance's entire eastern flank as part of Operation Atlantic Resolute, launched in 2014, and the deployment of two bilateral bases of the U.S. global missile defense system in Romania and Poland.
Back in the days of détente, Washington argued that it was capabilities, not intentions, that mattered. This was the basis for bilateral strategic arms control back then. Now, to a radically greater extent than during the Cold War (Moscow had the Warsaw Pact then), this issue arises for Russia, for the interests of ensuring its security. The territory of the European NATO countries is nothing but a US strategic bridgehead near our borders in the west, north and south. It is increasingly being used by the Americans to promote and develop their military infrastructure, including, in the long term, the deployment of medium-range missiles. These plans, including collective NATO plans, are not hidden. The pretext is defense against “Russian aggression”.
Therefore, the time has come to raise the question of capabilities. This is easy to do now, before we start deploying our new systems of medium- and shorter-range missiles. This is all the more logical because Russia cannot afford, especially in the current conditions of open hostility of the West, to allow the transfer of American weapons of this class to Europe. Then it would have to act preemptively, so that the U.S. European allies would realize how much it does not meet their interests. In this case, the alliance is unlikely to continue to exist.
No less important is the fact that NATO is developing plans to deploy a rapid reaction force of 300,000 troops, including American troops, along our borders over the next five years. With the stretching of our front (shared with Belarus as part of the Union State), which has increased dramatically with the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, this poses a more than unacceptable threat to our security. Should we wait, as it turned out for Hitler, for such a grouping to be created?
We have every reason to prove that we have no claim to other people's territories, especially those of NATO countries. Another thing is preventive strikes in depth from our territory, from sea and ocean areas and the airspace above them on the relevant transportation logistics, including railroad hubs, ports and airfields that can be used to move troops to our borders. “Nutshell provides the ability to do this bloodlessly and without the use of nuclear weapons. We can dump information about our launches to the U.S. side in advance, indicating that these means will hit targets east of the zero meridian, i.e. will not threaten U.S. territory.
As a result, the geostrategic picture in Europe and the Euro-Atlantic region is changing fundamentally, with new challenges and new opportunities to address them. Incentives are also being created for agreements between the parties, in the achievement of which European countries would be primarily interested - as a potential theater of military operations in the conflict between the United States and Russia. This was Europe's status during the Cold War. Nothing in this respect has changed now. As then, this is where tactical nuclear weapons were to be used. Not on the territory of the USSR, because then it would provoke a nuclear response against the United States. So the same mantra was in effect: “America First!”, it's just that no one in the West dared to admit it at the time.
Again, would it not be better to reach an agreement now and start with Ukraine, where the West's attempt to gain a strategic advantage over us (there it is called “inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow” - no one pulled the Americans by the tongue!) turns out to be the prospect of its defeat “on behalf of NATO” with far-reaching consequences that can still be avoided.
Alexander Yakovenko
Source - ria.ru
